ECONOMIES: U.S. Shale Gas Weakening Russian, Iranian Petro-power

Published 22 July 2011

Rising U.S. natural gas production from shale formations has already played a critical role in weakening Russia’s ability to wield an "energy weapon" over its European customers, and this trend will accelerate in the coming decades

Natural gas drilling rig in Hopewell Township, PA // Source: congdonghoalan.com

Rising U.S. natural gas production from shale formations has already played a critical role in weakening Russia’s ability to wield an “energy weapon” over its European customers, and this trend will accelerate in the coming decades, according to a new Baker Institute study, “Shale Gas and U.S. National Security.” The study, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, projects that Russia’s natural gas market share in Western Europe will decline to as little as 13 percent by 2040, down from 27 percent in 2009. “The geopolitical repercussions of expanding U.S. shale gas production are going to be enormous,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies and one of the authors of the study. “By increasing alternative supplies to Europe in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) displaced from the U.S. market, the petro-power of Russia, Venezuela, and Iran is faltering on the back of plentiful American natural gas supply.”  For more

RUSSIAN MILITARY > Russia to Allocate $730B for Armaments by 2020

Thursday, July 7, 2011 [Full article]

photo courtesy of DoD

Russia plans to acquire eight ballistic-missile submarines as part of a $730 billion armaments upgrade plan extending through 2020, Voice of America reported on Wednesday (see GSN, April 21).

The procurements declared by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, which are also expected to include 600 flight assets and S-400 and S-500 air defenses, would boost Moscow's military holdings of up-to-date armaments to 70 percent of the total stockpile by the end of the effort.

Russia's highest priority is to upgrade its strategic nuclear deterrent, but it must also make changes to other weapons and equipment, defense expert Pavel Felgenhauer said. "Then there's of course the air force, the air defense system, the army -- actually, everything needs rearming because right now they say that (only) 10-15 percent of our weaponry is modern," he said.

Russia's defense spending is 10 times its level from a decade ago, but the modernization effort still lags, Felgenhauer said.

"Now the present defense minister says that there was massive misappropriation of funds," the analyst said. "The Russian defense industry, which is also downgraded, and its capabilities are much smaller than in Soviet times, responded to more funding by just raising prices. They are producing the same several fighters or missiles, but for a much bigger price" (Anya Ardayeva, Voice of America, July 6).

Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov received instructions from President Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday to present a declaration within three days on the government's execution of this year's military acquisition plans, RIA Novosti reported.

The Defense Ministry has held up the finalization of deals for strategic nuclear weapons purchases and other acquisitions, placing the 2011 plans at risk, top missile designer Yuri Solomonov told the newspaperKommersant. The arrangements were originally expected to be in place by April 15; Medvedev pushed the due date back to end of May, though, and early that month criticized the defense sector over the slowdown (see GSN, May 11).

Medvedev on Wednesday pressed the defense minister to "find out what is going on."

"If the reports about the disruption of the state defense order are true, then those responsible for this should be punished regardless of their ranks and posts," Medvedev told Serdyukov in a video discussion. "I expect you to report back in three days" (RIA Novosti, July 6).

Small Pox > Decision Delayed on Eliminating Smallpox Stocks

Decision Delayed on Eliminating Smallpox Stocks

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

photo courtesy  ki4u.com

The World Health Assembly on Tuesday pushed back to 2014 any decision on setting a deadline to eliminate smallpox virus strains held by Russia and the United States, Reuters reported (see GSN, May 23).  

Moscow and Washington have said they need to hold onto the world's last known variola virus stocks to allow for continued research and development of additional vaccines and antivirals. They had pressed for delaying a decision on the matter for five years.

While the European Union and nations such as China and Israel backed that position, a bloc of some 20 countries led by Iran had reportedly pressed for a schedule to be set at this meeting of the decision-making body for the World Health Organization. The gathering ended on Tuesday, following two days of consideration of the matter.

"There has been a lot of discussion around the smallpox issue," WHO official Pierre Formenty said to reporters. "Three years from now, we will resume the discussion" (Barbara Lewis, Reuters I/Yahoo!News, May 24).

Iran on Monday had taken the rare step of calling for a vote on establishing the smallpox destruction deadline, Reuters reported.

The 193-member state World Health Assembly typically makes decisions based on consensus. Tehran's proposal was dismissed by other countries who instead backed forming a working group to attempt to bridge disagreements on the schedule issue.  Full article

Russia Threatens Nuclear Arms Boost if Antimissile Dispute Persists

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Wednesday his nation would enhance its stockpile of nuclear weapons if it reaches no agreement with the United States to collaborate on a European antimissile framework, Reuters reported (see GSN, May 11).

(May. 18) - A Russian Topol-M ICBM, shown on display during a parade last week in Moscow's Red Square. Russia could bolster its nuclear arsenal if its reaches no deal with the United States on European missile defense cooperation, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Wednesday (Dmitry Kostyukov/Getty Images).

Moscow and NATO agreed last November in Lisbon, Portugal, to jointly explore areas for possible antimissile collaboration (see GSN, Nov. 22, 2010). A Kremlin proposal that Europe be divided into two sectors of missile defense responsibility, with NATO managing one and Russia the other, has not generated much interest among alliance members. The United States has said it would never place any NATO state's missile protection in Moscow's hands (see GSN, May 16).

"I hope the questions that I put to my colleague and friend President Obama will be answered and we can work out a model for cooperation in antimissile defense," Medvedev said.

"If we don't work this out, then we will have take steps to counter it, which we would not like. Then we are talking about forcing the development of our nuclear strike potential," the Russian president said. "This would be a very bad scenario, a scenario that would throw us back to the Cold War era" (Alexei Anishchuk, Reuters, May 18).

Failure to reach an agreement might prompt Moscow to cut short its compliance with the U.S.-Russian New START strategic arms control treaty, the Xinhua News Agency quoted him as saying. The pact requires both nations to cut their deployed strategic nuclear arsenals to 1,550 warheads and 700 delivery systems, and allows for verification inspections in the two countries (Xinhua News Agency, May 18).

Meanwhile, Russia's RS-24 ICBM will be suited within two decades to penetrate any antimissile system operated by another government, Russian strategic rocket forces head Lt. Gen. Sergei Karakayev said (seeGSN, March 4).

"It is necessary to note the new missiles' ability to be invulnerable before launch thanks to their mobility, as well as their ability to tackle the task of defeating any possible missile defense system within the next 15-20 years, should such a need arise," Russia Today on Tuesday quoted Karakayev as saying.

"The first missile regiment, comprised of two batteries armed with Yars advanced land-based mobile missile systems, equipped with RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, entered duty
at the Teikovo missile division, based in Ivanov region, on March 4," he noted. “This is a weapon that has accumulated the best qualities of the Topol-M missile and has acquired new combat possibilities.”

The official did not directly address Washington's missile shield plans for Europe (Russia Today, May 17).

Russia intends to begin a new series of test launches next month of its experimental Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missile, RIA Novosti reported last week (see GSN, May 11).

"The launch will take place between June 15 and 17 from the Dmitry Donskoy nuclear submarine (in the White Sea)," a Defense Ministry insider said.

The Bulava is designed to carry 10 nuclear warheads as far as 5,000 miles. Seven of the missile's 14 trial launches to date have been successes, including two tests conducted in October (RIA Novosti, May 13)
.

WMD > Russian missile troops get more WMD protection

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Russia has been providing significantly higher levels of WMD defense gear to the
military branch that manages the nation's land-based nuclear missiles, Interfax
reported on Tuesday (see GSN, March 4).

"Given the importance of the implementation of tasks of provision of alert duty
service and nuclear security, over 40 [tons] of radiation, chemical and biological
protection means were supplied to [the Russian strategic missile troops] in 2010,
which is double the volume of deliveries in previous years," said branch
spokesman Col. Vadim Koval.

Koval cited specifically a transportable decontamination system and a vehicle that
 would allow troops to safely investigate an area that might have been subject to
a WMD strike.

"These models of arms make it possible to reduce the time a commander needs to
take a decision and to maintain the combat capability of his subunits," Koval said.
"They will replace obsolete military hardware. Three chemical reconnaissance
vehicles will be supplied to [strategic missile troops] units in 2011. The delivery
of mobile spray stations started in 2008. Overall, the plan is to replace up to
80 percent of [missile troops] arms and means of radiation, chemical and biological
protection by 2020," he added (Interfax, May 3).

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